AFC Bournemouth v Manchester City - Saturday 5.30 pm

billythekid

billythekid

UTC Legend
Tough Game Against A Team We Have Never Beaten

After the defeat away at Fulham, the Cherries were twice in front up in Newcastle in their second away game in a row. But couldn’t hold out for all three points and do the double over Eddie Howe’s team this season. AFCB still are undefeated against Eddie and have won 1 and drawn 3 games. Our next game is back at Dean Court on Saturday at 5.30 pm against Manchester City, a team we have never beaten and it’s being shown live on Sky.

Pep Guardiola has got his team right back in contention to win the title again.
This season after 25 games, City are in 2nd place with 56 points.
Last season after 25 games, City were in second place with 55 points.
Season 2021-22 after 25 games, City were top with 63 points.

Since our game up in Manchester, City on their travels have beaten Luton Town 1-2, Everton 1-3, Newcastle United 2-3 and their last away game Brentford 1-3. They have drawn one game, that was Chelsea 4-4. One defeat, 1-0 against Aston Villa and since our game back in November, the Villa game is the only one City haven’t scored and only the second time this season, the other was away against Arsenal. City top the last four away game table, with four wins.

At home since our game in Manchester, City have beaten Sheffield United, Burnley and Everton. Drawn with Liverpool, Spurs and Crystal Palace. City home and away, had won their last six Premier League games and in all competitions they had a straight win of eleven games. That came to an end at the Etihad Stadium in a 1-1 draw with Chelsea. Their most recent game was against Brentford on Tuesday night which finished 1-0.

The last time Manchester City visited Dean Court, was February last year. They were 0-3 up by half-time with goals from Alvarez, Haaland and Foden. Mepham scored an own goal six minutes into the second half to make it 0-4. Lerma scored a consolation goal for the Cherries with seven minutes of normal time to play, with the game ending 1-4.

In all our home games against Manchester City, AFCB have W 0, D 1, L 8.
All competitions against City, AFCB have W 0, D 2, L 18.

AFCB Team News
This will be Philip Billing’s third and last game of his suspension. Romain Favre hopefully will be available again after illness kept him out of the squad at Newcastle.

AFCB Player To Watch
Think eyes will be on our defence in this game and hope Dominic Solanke, Antoine Semenyo, or one of our players can capitalise on any chances we get.

Manchester City Team News
Josko Gvardiol and Jack Grealish have been out injured. Kevin De Bruyne was an unused substitute against Brentford due to a hamstring niggle.

Manchester City Player To Watch
A number who could cause us problems. But in games against AFCB, Phil Foden has done well, scored in every game over the last two seasons. This season in his lasts seven PL games, has scored 3 goals which was a hat-trick at Brentford and has 3 assists. Joint second leading scorer with 8 goals and joint leading with 7 assists. Then you have Erling Haaland leading scorer with 17 goals and has 5 assists. Kevin De Bruyne, brilliant midfield player and a joy to watch. Been out injured for a good time, but since he has been back, in his last six league games, has scored 1 goal and had 4 assists.

The Referee
Jarred Gillett is the man in charge of our game. We had him once last season, it was away against Brentford.
 
This match could set a new Football League record: it's never taken a team 21 attempts to win their first match against another.
 
The current record is held by AFC Bournemouth, who are winless in 20 attempts against Manchester City.
 
In fairness, the outcome of this game is already a foregone conclusion. However, it is a 'free hit' and we have nothing to lose. We may as well go for it full pelt and see what happens.

Let's hope that Liverpool do us a favour by beating Luton tonight.
 
Reality and Realism said:
In fairness, the outcome of this game is already a foregone conclusion. However, it is a 'free hit' and we have nothing to lose. We may as well go for it full pelt and see what happens.

Let's hope that Liverpool do us a favour by beating Luton tonight.
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Changed your tune a bit. You always advocated playing the reserves in these sort of games. Man Utd away for example...............................:lol:
 
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Man City. These were three home games (Everton, Chelsea and Brentford) and one away at Brentford. Man City gained 10 points although the xGs suggest that 12 was more likely. Man City have scored 7 goals and conceded 2 with xG estimating 8.86 goals with 3.15 conceded.

Goals xG.png

Man City have had 3 different goal scorers with Haaland and Foden both having scored 3 and Rodri one. De Bruyne has 2 assists, and four others have 1 assist each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Man City press high, the only exception to all players almost being in the opponent’s half is the Everton game, where they may have been wary of the long ball and Dias was left further back. We should expect to see plenty of Man City havingthe ball in our defensive half.

Av pos.png

The following graph compares summary stats of Man City and AFCB over the last 4 games. Man City have averaged 25 attempts per game, much more than AFCB’s 13.75. Big chances and xG are more comparable but are in Man City’s favour. Man City also has a better defensive record with the one statistic catching my eye is that they have not conceded a big chance in the last 4 games, for comparison, AFCB have conceded 9 which is similar to many other teams.

Comparison.png
Man C have had over 70% of possession compared to our 46%. The percentage of chances from open play are similar, although AFCB concede a higher proportion of chances from set plays than Man City.

Percentages.png
 
The last two times we have played City at home.

2022-23 AFCB shots 13, 2 on target City 20 shots, 5 on target. Result 1-4.

2019-20 AFCB shots 10 shots, 7 on target. City 18 shots, 5 on target. Res. 1-3.

City more clinical in their finishing.
 
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billythekid said:
The last two times we have played City at home.

2022-23 AFCB shots 13, 2 on target City 20 shots, 5 on target. Result 1-4.

2021-22 AFCB shots 10 shots, 7 on target. City 18 shots, 5 on target. Res. 1-3.

City more clinical in their finishing.
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And on their number of shots.
 
I know people aren’t going to react well to this, but I would like to see us give a few of the fringe players a start in this one. For a couple of reasons:

-It’s an excellent opportunity for the fringe players to stake a claim and to show what they can contribute individually, in a game where realistically we have nothing to lose.

-Our way of playing requires a lot of intensity and this is a good opportunity to give some of the first team players a rest, meaning that they can perform more optimally in games in which it is realistic for us to pick up points. We also avoid picking up any injuries to key players in a ‘write off’ fixture.


So I’d go:

Travers
Smith Zabarnyi Senesi Kerkez
Cook Scott
Favaire Kluivert Sinisterra
Unal

I know people will look to the fact that they drew with Chelsea and Brentford were competitive against them etc, but the reality is that the only way to make it a game against them is to play an ultra defensive low block with a threat on the counter. We just don’t play like that under this coach and even if we tried, we don’t have the defenders to pull it off anyway. Use the game as more of a training exercise.
 
redharry said:
Changed your tune a bit. You always advocated playing the reserves in these sort of games. Man Utd away for example...............................:lol:
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In fairness, we may as well play the reserves as it matters not what side we put out we are very likely, in all fairness, to wind up losing this game. Yes I would dearly love to see us win but it is most unlikely.
 
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