DJ
Moderator
Is this a strategy that any club in this country or even continent has used before building a new stadium?
Arsenal home game points
- Thread starter afcb_mattyd
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Is this a strategy that any club in this country or even continent has used before building a new stadium?
I don't really get this testing the demand. We are a premier League club. The least we'll need is a twenty thousand stadium and I certainly can't see them building a 50K stadium. The demand will only equate to success because we are not a footballing city like Leeds or Sheffield as examples.
I also don't quite understand the 'testing demand' thing.
If you remove say 500 seats from 'normal' sale and then offer them for sale to 1+ ticket holders (i.e. those that have been to friendlies, etc), then you can gauge demand for those tickets when they go on sale. But as they all sell out almost immediately anyway, couldn't you perform the same operation by holding back just one seat for 'Cherry Tuesday', and monitor the number of people that try to buy online, without pissing off 499 people that have almost maximum points?
If you remove say 500 seats from 'normal' sale and then offer them for sale to 1+ ticket holders (i.e. those that have been to friendlies, etc), then you can gauge demand for those tickets when they go on sale. But as they all sell out almost immediately anyway, couldn't you perform the same operation by holding back just one seat for 'Cherry Tuesday', and monitor the number of people that try to buy online, without pissing off 499 people that have almost maximum points?
kirsikka
UTC Legend
Should it be an 18k capacity stadium? Should be be a 22k capacity stadium? What about 24k? The difference in costs will not be insignificant.
In modern football stadium, the big money comes from the corporate seating section and package seats. What kind of demand can they generate in Bournemouth? At what price point?
Should they simply expand what we have and save themselves £60m in up front costs? Can they make it work somehow by wangle things around on the current footprint?
At the same time as trying to find all this information Jim has also been tasked with growing revenue significantly in all areas of the business.
Increase in tickets prices? IIRC that was worth about £500k.
The new Ted Shed hospitality if it sells out every game? About £300k.
The new hospitality in the old 1910 bar? No clue on capacity, another £500?
Sharing the tickets around more people so more people visit the stadium and use the club shop, along with other initiatives to increase shop revenue. £500k?
Doubling the prices of all the sponsorship packages. £2m?
There are probably other things I'm forgetting as well.
On each of those that affect fans, the cry has been the increase in revenue is peanuts compared to the tv deal but it isn't about looking at any of these individually. Put that lot together and you're at £4m.
£4m is the annual cost of one player's transfer fee if we split it over the five years of the contract.
kirsikka
UTC Legend
They want more people actively spending at the stadium so they database of active purchasers is a more valid guide than a vague 'we have 100k on the database but only 11k of them buy tickets'.
Plus, if there's only one seat available then people aren't going to bother coming back to try again. They want to know people will keep coming back, not simply buy for one game.
As has been said above by someone, it's an impossible situation of trying to fit 20k people into 9k spaces. People who have been cut out up until now will feel aggrieved that they couldn't get hold of tickets before, those who were previously guaranteed tickets will feel aggrieved that they are no longer guaranteed tickets. People will be upset, so they'll choose the route that brings money and expands the database.
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I agree with what you say but, lets say there are e.g. 10,000 'extra' supporters that would like to buy a ticket, but currently cannot (to justify a 20,000 stadium)
If you take 500 tickets away from 'normal' sale, and offer these on 'Cherry Tuedays', then these 'new' supporters still only have a 500/10000 chance of getting a ticket i.e. 5% This equates to approx one game per season each.
So even if they 'come back' every week to try and get a ticket, the chances are they will be unsuccessful for 18 out of the 19 home games.
At a guess they would perhaps go for say a 20K stadium with the potential to increase in size (5K) at a later date if necessary.
They'll certainly focus on the those hospitality seats that will give them extra revenue. Remember, this is all about making money (and why not?).
Whatever demand they (Foley and his management) perceive surely it will increase if a) the club is more successful and b) it's a bit easier to get tickets in the first place.
Certainly, in the early PL years under Eddie, going to home matches were a closed shop for those lucky people who had ST (I don't begrudge them by the way) and also those people who'd built up sufficient points to get a ticket.
I'm sure a lot of people locally just gave up trying to get tickets.
They'll certainly focus on the those hospitality seats that will give them extra revenue. Remember, this is all about making money (and why not?).
Whatever demand they (Foley and his management) perceive surely it will increase if a) the club is more successful and b) it's a bit easier to get tickets in the first place.
Certainly, in the early PL years under Eddie, going to home matches were a closed shop for those lucky people who had ST (I don't begrudge them by the way) and also those people who'd built up sufficient points to get a ticket.
I'm sure a lot of people locally just gave up trying to get tickets.
kirsikka
UTC Legend
You're right, it's still imperfect. But most of the 10k won't come back every week. Your scenario would actually be their dream one, all the 10k getting a ticket and getting a chance to spend in the shop at least once per season.
However, enough will keep trying that the active ticket buyers database will increase over the year. If they then need to go out into the financial markets to raise finance for the new stadium, saying to investors 'We have an active ticket buyer list of 16k, and the traffic to our sites shows even more therefore you funding the new stadium is a good bet as we think this shows it will sell out' is a different story to 'We have an active ticket buyer list of 11k and lots of people have said they want to come so we think we can sell out a 20k stadium'.
Wouldn't the conversation be more like this?
AFCB: Hi Mr Investor, we'd like to borrow some cash to build a new stadium
Investor: Which division are you in
AFCB: The Premier League
Investor: And how many seats were you looking to build?
AFCB: 20,000
Investor: Ha ha ha! That's less than even Luton - are you sure you won't need more (you tinpot operation)?
DJ
Moderator
There is no way of gauging the true demand whilst there are the limitations that there are in regards to availability and historical reasons for not buying.
We have a generation of fans who have missed out on becoming regular match goers. They haven’t got the habit, so even if you could gauge how often they’d come back under the current set up, it would be different with a bigger ground. They might bring mates, who get the bug etc.
It doesn’t really make any sense and I’m not aware of any other club who have done something similar to what we appear to be doing to “gauge demand”. If I’m wrong it would be great to know who and how it went?
We have a generation of fans who have missed out on becoming regular match goers. They haven’t got the habit, so even if you could gauge how often they’d come back under the current set up, it would be different with a bigger ground. They might bring mates, who get the bug etc.
It doesn’t really make any sense and I’m not aware of any other club who have done something similar to what we appear to be doing to “gauge demand”. If I’m wrong it would be great to know who and how it went?
kirsikka
UTC Legend
Everton, a team that hasn't been relegated in 70 odds years so would seem like a safe bet to remain a PL team despite their form in the last two years, have struggled to raise finance for their stadium since they lost their Russian-linked backer to sanctions. They're a much safer bet than we are.
Meanwhile, it isn't only about getting an offer. It's about getting as good an offer as you can find. Reduce the risk in the eyes of investors and the terms will become more favourable.
MB1980
UTC Legend
I'd like to see potential to relatively easily increase to 30 or even 35k.
Who knows what foleys aspirations are, guess we also have to factor in his age when considering 'long term', but I'd hope 30k is 'easily' possible otherwise we could wellend up having another similar debate in 5 or 10 years.
I doubt it costs that much more to have a 30k stadium over 20k. Most of the cost is around simply building a new ground in the first place, with associated costs.
But yes, equally, the idea of having a 3rd dull stadium in the 2nd tier is hardly appealing either.
kirsikka
UTC Legend
I don't think it's that one thing though. It's a three part process.
1 - Increase revenue, which sharing around the seats more does.
2 - Test demand, especially for the hospitality stuff. Hence the scything off of more seats with the new tent.
3 - Improving the active database numbers to help with raising finance.
If I'm honest, the easy thing to do to gauge demand would be a paid membership, which was discussed here before.
cardiffcherry
First Team
I understand your point but I am concerned that we might end up with a stadium too big for us. I know I won’t enjoy being in a half empty stadium in the Championship.
I know the owners will be more motivated by the economics but I do think it is important there is some sort of scientific approach, however imperfect.
..and they have concrete proof that they have the demand to fill a stadium week in week out (as they have for many years).
If we built a 20,000 stadium then only 3 other Championship teams would have a smaller ground than us (QPR, Plymouth, Rotherham). Hardly a massive ambition.
Kudos
UTC Legend
What you need to understand is that everyone with a season ticket has had one for 30+ years and is simply a superior supporter and human being.
Anyone who didn't happen to have one in 2014 or had to give it up for work, family, finance or any other weak excuse is scum that should be grateful for the opportunity to fight for the crumbs.
davidwhitehead
Fans' Favourite
Why don't we just ask Tony Bloom how on earth he justified building the AMEX when Brighton were a middling 3rd tier outfit and for years they had gates of around 6000 at the Withdean.
I imagine his reply might include the words vision, energy, belief.
Oh, and ambition.
I imagine his reply might include the words vision, energy, belief.
Oh, and ambition.
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Sorry Roger
Fans' Favourite
What will matter more to Foley is how much income the stadium can generate and, to a lesser degree, to what extent it can contribute to success on the pitch by its atmosphere.
Southampton have a stadium which is too big for them (hence loads of away fans in home areas), a crap atmosphere and which doesn’t generate as much corporate income as you might expect.
