Non - Pandemic

All good mate.

Was just try to make the point that no matter where you work.... If there is limited scope economically to buy your products either digitally or in a service orientataion, due to an economic collapse, then there is no economy.


We already have the USA.... apparently the largest and strongest economy globally with a 23 TRILLION dollar budget deficit promising to help everyone from the NASDAQ to the bar worker.

What could possibly go wrong?

What we will see is hereby, whatever you did have, is now worthless due to hyperinflation.

Quantitive easing, or quantative pleasing...... You decide.
 
dragonm8 said:
All good mate.

Was just try to make the point that no matter where you work.... If there is limited scope economically to buy your products either digitally or in a service orientataion, due to an economic collapse, then there is no economy.


We already have the USA.... apparently the largest and strongest economy globally with a 23 TRILLION dollar budget deficit promising to help everyone from the NASDAQ to the bar worker.

What could possibly go wrong?

What we will see is hereby, whatever you did have, is now worthless due to hyperinflation.

Quantitive easing, or quantative pleasing...... You decide.
Click to expand...

Reading that report I think we are in massive trouble. 250,000 deaths on the cards if we don't shut the lot down for months. Possibly until they develop a vaccine, which could take 18 months.

Are people going to suffer economic hardship and total lockdown for this length of time? God knows.
 
If I lock you in a room and deny you access to a cheeseburger that was once, let's say, 3 quid.

You might be inclined , due to scarcity to pay 20 dollars for the same burger.

This is the basis of hyperinflation.

Can you not see this happening?
 
dragonm8 said:
If I lock you in a room and deny you access to a cheeseburger that was once, let's say, 3 quid.

You might be inclined , due to scarcity to pay 20 dollars for the same burger.

This is the basis of hyperinflation.

Can you not see this happening?
Click to expand...

Who knows but there's many economists who think Western economists put too much emphasis on inflation and hyperinflation as threats given they haven't been a problem in 40 years. Inflation, they argue, is wages driven therefore has been limited as in the last few decades as globalised Labour markets supress wages.

Who knows what the outcome of all this will be though.
 
With respect, I think you've just answered the question.

If inflation, and therefore, by default, hyperinflation is wage driven, what happens when the majority of the workforce is placed in lockdown, unable to work due to an invisible threat.

We will see I guess.
 
"Israel’s government has approved emergency measures to track people suspected or confirmed to have been infected with the coronavirus by monitoring their mobile phones, immediately raising privacy concerns in the country.
The cabinet unanimously approved the use of the technology, developed initially for counter-terrorism purposes, in the early hours of Tuesday morning."
 
The Government is nailed on to flounder under the pressure of this Virus.
Even after they've correctly passed the buck to advisors in the form of medics and scientists.....to sort out the Virus itself.

They will not have had to face before, anything like the fall-out coming as a result of major businesses collapsing...airlines, travel industry, exporters.....therefore the flak coming their way will be from the people they traditionally support if those big businesses are not propped up. .. so, maybe not just Labour voters and Scots getting at them....uncharted territory !
Boris's Easy 5 years.....has been torpedoed by bacteria!
 
The buck stops with the government, that's what they were elected to do.

Advisers advise, the government makes the decisions.
 
JIMNNINA said:
The buck stops with the government, that's what they were elected to do.

Advisers advise, the government makes the decisions.
Click to expand...

From our perspective it does but if the experts have ballsed up their numbers to the extent that their advice could cost hundreds of thousands of lives then I should think some of their careers are also on the line, like the rest of our careers are.
 
SlowDownDerek said:
From our perspective it does but if the experts have ballsed up their numbers to the extent that their advice could cost hundreds of thousands of lives then I should think some of their careers are also on the line, like the rest of our careers are.
Click to expand...
Absolutely SDD. I read through the report you posted earlier and with my limited knowledge, yes there is some grim reading in there. I can see where the Gov't has got the current strategy from as clearly the suppression/mitigation measures announced yesterday fall in line with the flattening of the curve in the report. What I am not clear from in the report is where mitigation becomes suppression but that is probably due to my limited intelligence!!
What we must remember is that these are models and as such not stone cold facts. Whether the UK should have imposed stricter measures a month ago who knows - would the public have bought into it when we had virtually no cases to report ? The EU with its open borders, easy travel, holidays etc was always going to be a major breeding ground.
I think we are a very short step away from what France, Italy and Spain have imposed - I expect it to be imposed within a week or so.
What I am having trouble getting my head around is the longevity of the outbreak if lockdown is imposed. In my simple mind with the infection, incubation, infectious cycle being about 14 days then a 4 week lockdown should pretty much sort the thing out (as in China).
It will be morbidly fascinating to watch the figures from Italy, France and Spain over the next couple of weeks to see how their approach fares.
In the meantime the Chancellor must announce some proper rescue initiatives for businesses large and small in his announcements today.
 
redharry said:
Absolutely SDD. I read through the report you posted earlier and with my limited knowledge, yes there is some grim reading in there. I can see where the Gov't has got the current strategy from as clearly the suppression/mitigation measures announced yesterday fall in line with the flattening of the curve in the report. What I am not clear from in the report is where mitigation becomes suppression but that is probably due to my limited intelligence!!
What we must remember is that these are models and as such not stone cold facts. Whether the UK should have imposed stricter measures a month ago who knows - would the public have bought into it when we had virtually no cases to report ? The EU with its open borders, easy travel, holidays etc was always going to be a major breeding ground.
I think we are a very short step away from what France, Italy and Spain have imposed - I expect it to be imposed within a week or so.
What I am having trouble getting my head around is the longevity of the outbreak if lockdown is imposed. In my simple mind with the infection, incubation, infectious cycle being about 14 days then a 4 week lockdown should pretty much sort the thing out (as in China).
It will be morbidly fascinating to watch the figures from Italy, France and Spain over the next couple of weeks to see how their approach fares.
In the meantime the Chancellor must announce some proper rescue initiatives for businesses large and small in his announcements today.
Click to expand...

If I've understood it correctly they've abandoned mitigation and gone to suppression, in line with most of the rest of the world. Basically admitted defeat.

It seems pretty clear to me* that they definately should have put these draconian measures in weeks and weeks ago and then maybe four weeks would have been enough. As it stands there are possibly 50,000 cases and even with this ambiguous lockdown these will spread so four weeks won't do it.

II was speaking to a pal yesterday who lives in Singapore and who's husband works in their health service. I say speaking I was basically being lectured on why the UK has put the world at risk and how western arrogance has led to our government's being complacent and not getting it under control. Bit strong maybe but when you look at how they've dealt with it compared to us they may have a point.

All of our numbers are going to get like Italy very soon by the looks of it.

*unqualified opinion alert.
 
My experience of Singapore was that when their Leaders gave out directives...everyone obeys...their culture is geared to that without it being a dictatorship.
The comparison is of course limited - its the size of Dorset...however it is a vibrant trading hub of that region and worldwide....so they have done well to suppress the Virus, assuming the news is not fake.
 
Some experts are saying that this is a winter virus so cases should naturally drop off as the days get warmer while in the southern hemisphere cases will spike as we head into their winter.

It’s worth keeping an eye on but from what I’ve seen Australia seems to already have had many cases despite it being summer. Population density is lower in the southern hemisphere which should mitigate the spread but places like the south island of New Zealand and southern Argentina and Chile which get fairly harsh winters would be advised to act now to prepare
 
Now we have Raab giving advice from the HoC. I thought we were going to get daily briefings rather than be drip-fed.

We are so unprepared its frightening. We surely cant close everything down for 18 month?
 
SlowDownDerek said:
From our perspective it does but if the experts have ballsed up their numbers to the extent that their advice could cost hundreds of thousands of lives then I should think some of their careers are also on the line, like the rest of our careers are.
Click to expand...
Nah, the idiots will still vote the Boris-led Conservatives in next time round.
 
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