Thoughts on the match V Sheff Utd

[stanthevan]

Whenever I see XG mentioned I flick on past...the only real stat I am interested in is the final result....possession shots on goal ok but when we get into graphs etc I start to glaze over ......spose it is an age thing..

I'm only just getting used to the term "assists"

 

[Druss_the_Legend]

By definition, most players are average,

Are they? By what definition? All the players in the EFL are way above the average footballer. They are in the top 1%. If compared to the Premier League then all the players in the EFL are below average. So whats your average?

Got to love trying to define players by stats and not by how they actually play and what they bring to a team.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

Millwall and Barnsley......not exactly a problem over a whole season is it?......is it really worth employing such an extremely negative tatic that offers as far as I can see no advantage?.....
A tatic that also up to now owes its success to luck rather than skill it must be said .

You can't see any advantage to holding on for three points? What about the points? It's so far not failed so it's 100% advantage as things stand.

 

[Neil Dawson]

You can't see any advantage to holding on for three points? What about the points? It's so far not failed so it's 100% advantage as things stand.

This. Everyone is talking about this tactic like we’ve ended up losing all the games we’ve tried it! It’s hilarious. Yes, it’s going to go wrong at some point but there’s only us and Liverpool left unbeaten. I must visit the Liverpool forum to see what it is they are doing wrong too and how it’s going to bite them one day soon.

 

[CherryBare]

This. Everyone is talking about this tactic like we’ve ended up losing all the games we’ve tried it! It’s hilarious. Yes, it’s going to go wrong at some point but there’s only us and Liverpool left unbeaten. I must visit the Liverpool forum to see what it is they are doing wrong too and how it’s going to bite them one day soon.

Yes agreed, and yesterday we scored twice in the 2nd half, brought mepham on with 5 to go to shore up the defence. Hardly hanging on for last 30 mins. The other subs were Lowe for solanke a straight swap then Stacy deep into injury time.
Maybe fresh legs could have been introduced earlier, but as you say its working.

 

[Topfarrier]

You can't see any advantage to holding on for three points? What about the points? It's so far not failed so it's 100% advantage as things stand.

But we didn't have any trouble holding on to leads without being so negative....so how is it an advantage?.....

 

[Steady Eddie 1]

Honorable mention for the Ted Mac stand with great support all through the match.

Great to see the Utd fans so crestfallen.

Swearing, gesturing offering the police out and that was just the women. (Seriously, not kidding)

And embarrassing pitch invasion for the goal they didn't score. PRICELESS

 

[Matt Stevenson]

Are they? By what definition? All the players in the EFL are way above the average footballer. They are in the top 1%. If compared to the Premier League then all the players in the EFL are below average. So whats your average?

Got to love trying to define players by stats and not by how they actually play and what they bring to a team.

There is a wealth of info here https://theanalyst.com/eu/2021/06/what-are-expected-goals-xg/

The database claims to have data from over 2.5 million shots from over 66,000 players, presumably from the top leagues.

Whilst I agree that strikers in the premier league should be better than those in the EFL I would also expect the goalkeepers and defenders to be better too, cancelling out that benefit. I’m assuming that for every Kane or Afobe that there would be multiple players in between with ‘average‘ ability hence saying most will be near average. With the xG : goals ratio from players last year in the championship it appeared fairly clustered around the mean / median.

I do agree that trying to assess a player like Pearson with xG is absolutely pointless. But if we want a quick stat to see if a result was a fair reflection of the game then xG might be the best we have. It is more nuanced than shots as this does not distinguish between pot shots from range and ‘sitters’, big chances are subjective too and who sets the threshold for the big chance, and possession is flawed. We could just focus entirely on the score, but Id imagine we’ve all been to 2 games where the score was the same but in one it flattered us, but the other flattered the opponents.

The timeline does show you at a glance how the game panned out.

All this said, I’m not trying to persuade anyone to look at these if they think the analyses are flawed. Hopefully though, there is a proportion who find it interesting when viewed with a critical eye.

 

[tedisking]

There is a wealth of info here https://theanalyst.com/eu/2021/06/what-are-expected-goals-xg/

The database claims to have data from over 2.5 million shots from over 66,000 players, presumably from the top leagues.

Whilst I agree that strikers in the premier league should be better than those in the EFL I would also expect the goalkeepers and defenders to be better too, cancelling out that benefit. I’m assuming that for every Kane or Afobe that there would be multiple players in between with ‘average‘ ability hence saying most will be near average. With the xG : goals ratio from players last year in the championship it appeared fairly clustered around the mean / median.

I do agree that trying to assess a player like Pearson with xG is absolutely pointless. But if we want a quick stat to see if a result was a fair reflection of the game then xG might be the best we have. It is more nuanced than shots as this does not distinguish between pot shots from range and ‘sitters’, big chances are subjective too and who sets the threshold for the big chance, and possession is flawed. We could just focus entirely on the score, but Id imagine we’ve all been to 2 games where the score was the same but in one it flattered us, but the other flattered the opponents.

The timeline does show you at a glance how the game panned out.

All this said, I’m not trying to persuade anyone to look at these if they think the analyses are flawed. Hopefully though, there is a proportion who find it interesting when viewed with a critical eye.

 

[Doofus]

I quite like how we are able to hang on to a lead but it does need tweaking a bit. We need to maintain some counter attack threat. When the clock is winding down and the opposition is throwing everything forwards, it is a fantastic opportunity for somebody with pace to possibly have a one on one with their keeper, if we have that out ball. If we did that then I’d have no issue with prioritising defending our lead but as you say, to carry zero threat whilst doing so is surrendering the rest of the game to the opposition completely. They can concentrate all of their efforts on scoring a goal, knowing that we are not in a position to hurt them.

I’d like to think that SP will consider a tweak in this direction. Defend as a team by all means but always be looking for a counter opportunity, leave somebody with pace more advanced and always look for that out ball when we have possession.

Dom did exactly what you say here with about 8 mins to go. You could see the instant when he veered off towards the corner flag. Sensible I suppose in a game management scenario but would have preferred him to go route 1 and finish with a 20 yard drive into the top corner! In my dreams we can have it all.

 

[paul49]

Good win in the end.

First half Sheffield Utd worked a high press, with a quicker tempo and speed of thought.

Christie set the example to wrestle back the initiative. He was my MOM.

Why don't we test the goalie with a shot when the opportunity is there? Too many times we try and walk the ball into the goal.

I was concerned for Ben Pearson. He appeared to be out cold for a few minutes but came straight back onto the pitch after walking off with our medics.

 

[Garbo]

...having to dog out wins is a good sign of the team spirit in Parker's management.

We are not going to get rolled over this season by anyone (unless it is in the FA Cup!!)

I like the energy and commitment of our players and I would bet that we are getting a reputation for being horrible to play against in this league...its not quite Burnleyesque yet!

At least we will get the Stokies in meltdown when we play them, and I can see their handbags now being thrown!!!

 

[Kenya Cherrie]

And embarrassing pitch invasion for the goal they didn't score. PRICELESS

It seems to be a Yorkshire thing.
My mother hated people from Yorkshire who came to Bournemouth on holidays.

 

[rgb]

Challenge outside the box that continued into it. How that challenge didn't warrant a red card is beyond me. Both feet off the ground and out of control. You can see the studs going into Dom's thigh
View attachment 6458

According to Neil Redfearn, that's 4 or 5 yards outside the box.

 

[wellsworld]

It seems to be a Yorkshire thing.
My mother hated people from Yorkshire who came to Bournemouth on holidays.

bit weird

 

[rikki39]

But we didn't have any trouble holding on to leads without being so negative....so how is it an advantage?.....

a quick scout through some stats that I found
16/17 season we dropped 22 points from winning positions
17/18 season we dropped 14 points from winning positions
18/19 could find any
19/20 we dropped 20 points from winning positions
it doesn't say when we lost the lead etc but it does show consistently we have dropped points.
and I know we will drop points every season from winning positions so maybe this is a debate for end of season when we can compare more?

 

[OLDSKOOL]

Bumbles used to run a secret after hours called "The Knacker's Yard" - you only knew about if you could unravel the secret cipher in the Exchange & Mart's "Bric-A-Brac" section and boy you could get kicked in the balls all manner of ways in there. The Warren Aspinall machine was a crowd favourite.

Blimey , that place sounds even worse than I heard at the time .
I’m glad I never went there .

 

[Topfarrier]

a quick scout through some stats that I found
16/17 season we dropped 22 points from winning positions
17/18 season we dropped 14 points from winning positions
18/19 could find any
19/20 we dropped 20 points from winning positions
it doesn't say when we lost the lead etc but it does show consistently we have dropped points.
and I know we will drop points every season from winning positions so maybe this is a debate for end of season when we can compare more?

Thanks.... obviously every team drops points from being in front but we're talking about seeing out games....i.e the last 10-20 minutes.

 

[OLDSKOOL]

Would also throw in that it’s getting incredibly boring hearing from other fans like Sheff Utd how evil and naughty we are, with some of the challenges and dives being performed by their players today! Dubious penalty perhaps but could’ve easily seen red, their number 29 shoved Smith by the throat and escaped without so much as a booking. Pot kettle black.

They still can’t handle the idea that a tinpot club like us could be successful and actually compete with teams like them …
We should just roll over and let them beat us .

 

[rikki39]

Thanks.... obviously every team drops points from being in front but we're talking about seeing out games....i.e the last 10-20 minutes.

oh I'm sorry your statement was we never had a problem with holding onto leads I just showed you that we have, I didn't realise you just made a statement but didn't want to be pulled up on it again so sorry