Thoughts on the match V Sheff Utd

[AFCBade]

Here's the xG timeline.

On the radio it sounded a tight game, which the stats support for a lot of the game. The big chances for us were Dom's scramble just after half time and the penalty. Billing's goal was ranked about 1 in 11 which looked a little low, but it was a good finish. Zemura's effort about the same.

For the Blades, there was the Sharp chance after Kelly's mistake, the goal itself and the Mousset header (he really should have scored) / McBurnie follow up.

View attachment 6459

how does Afcb’s XG rise so high at the end above Sheffield’s XG when Sheffield were pressing and creating chances?

 

[Matt Stevenson]

how does Afcb’s XG rise so high at the end above Sheffield’s XG when Sheffield were pressing and creating chances?

We are the blue line. The big rise for us in the 62nd minute is the penalty. In the 80th minute and beyond (for simplicity I've just lumped anything above 90 into the same point) the xGs were AFCB 0.00 and Shef U 0.68, which fits with your view.

 

[DJ]

Man of the match poll - https://bournemouth.vitalfootball.co.uk/afcb-v-sheff-utd-highlights-reaction/

 

[Waz afcb]

We are the blue line. The big rise for us in the 62nd minute is the penalty. In the 80th minute and beyond (for simplicity I've just lumped anything above 90 into the same point) the xGs were AFCB 0.00 and Shef U 0.68, which fits with your view.

Utter nonsense that the Billing and Zemura chances are only scored one in eleven times.

 

[Topfarrier]

Why isn't that the best way of seeing a game out? We've accumulated sh*t loads of points doing just that even if one day we end up drawing.

You may have a point of it was really effective....the whole point of us parking the bus in the second half is to stop the opposition from having goal scoring opportunities ..... Yet we keep giving our opponents massive chances to score at the end of games....... Us relying on opposition striker's being hopeless is nothing to celebrate.

 

[redharry]

Here's the xG timeline.

On the radio it sounded a tight game, which the stats support for a lot of the game. The big chances for us were Dom's scramble just after half time and the penalty. Billing's goal was ranked about 1 in 11 which looked a little low, but it was a good finish. Zemura's effort about the same.

For the Blades, there was the Sharp chance after Kelly's mistake, the goal itself and the Mousset header (he really should have scored) / McBurnie follow up.

View attachment 6459

So how does Billings free kick in the first half that was tipped round by the keeper with a good save and Billings effort that he hit straight back at the keeper after his error show up. All he had to do was hit the ball a bit harder and it was a certain goal with that second one.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

You may have a point of it was really effective....the whole point of us parking the bus in the second half is to stop the opposition from having goal scoring opportunities ..... Yet we keep giving our opponents massive chances to score at the end of games....... Us relying on opposition striker's being hopeless is nothing to celebrate.

It is really effective, it's not failed once so far unless you count Blackpool and that wasn't the last 10/20 minutes. My question is.... What if your worst fears come true and after four or five times of successfully trying to hold onto a narrow lead we are eventually punished? So what?

 

[New Forest Cherry]

Player ratings
Travers-6- not a great deal to do, they scored from their only shot on target. Doesn’t look comfortable commanding his area though, needs to do better in certain situations.
.

he worries me
their chance at the end, the ball bounces in front of him in the 6 yard box yet he's glued to his line and expects kelly to deal with it facing his own goal
we seem to have cover for every position but two mediocre keepers

[edit; i've not seen the new guy, he may be brilliant....]

 

[New Forest Cherry]

It is really effective, it's not failed once so far unless you could Blackpool and that wasn't the last 10/20 minutes. My question is.... What if your worst fears come true and after four or five times of successfully trying to hold onto a narrow lead we are eventually punished? So what?

it's a fair point
just very uncomfortable to watch when we could be playing 30 yards higher up the pitch

 

[Matt Stevenson]

So how does Billings free kick in the first half that was tipped round by the keeper with a good save and Billings effort that he hit straight back at the keeper after his error show up. All he had to do was hit the ball a bit harder and it was a certain goal with that second one.

The free kick was 7%. That feels about right, I think we’d blame the keeper if someone scored from there. Having seen this back, it was an easy save. I haven’t seen the second chance. If it was in the 20th min, from near where the free kick was, then it was down as 5%

 

[Matt Stevenson]

Utter nonsense that the Billing and Zemura chances are only scored one in eleven times.

Agree with you on the Billing goal, although it may get re-evaluated, some chances do.

Less sure on Zemura. There does seem to be a trend of saying that the xG is too low yet the chance was actually missed in the game. This might just be internal bias. With some of the chances that are rated as ‘sitters’ by people we’d regularly have been watching 4 all draws for the last 20 years.

 

[Waz afcb]

he worries me
their chance at the end, the ball bounces in front of him in the 6 yard box yet he's glued to his line and expects kelly to deal with it facing his own goal
we seem to have cover for every position but two mediocre keepers

[edit; i've not seen the new guy, he may be brilliant....]

He’s a great shot stopper, but seems totally unable to command his box in any way. That chance was utterly avoidable and I feel as though it isn’t being discussed enough, whether it be Travers or Kelly, one of them simply has to deal with it. Allowing the situation to develop to that stage was absolutely criminal. We got lucky today, but next time we probably won’t. I’m torn on Travers, he is clearly a great shot stopper but we need our keeper to be commanding certain situations better, from the limited bits I’ve seen of Nyland he is more proactive in coming off his line and I’m sure he would have at least attempted to deal with that situation. I also highly doubt he’s as good a shot stopper as Travers though (I’ve only seen him play vs Hull and Norwich in which he didn’t make a save in either.)

 

[redharry]

The free kick was 7%. That feels about right, I think we’d blame the keeper if someone scored from there. Having seen this back, it was an easy save. I haven’t seen the second chance. If it was in the 20th min, from near where the free kick was, then it was down as 5%

It was a well struck free kick but probably about right. The second chance from behind the goal in the North Stand was a great chance, keeper off his line, Billing not under pressure, just had to get a bit of power behind it. Easier chance than Lerma had when the Luton keeper screwed up last week.

 

[Waz afcb]

Agree with you on the Billing goal, although it may get re-evaluated, some chances do.

Less sure on Zemura. There does seem to be a trend of saying that the xG is too low yet the chance was actually missed in the game. This might just be internal bias. With some of the chances that are rated as ‘sitters’ by people we’d regularly have been watching 4 all draws for the last 20 years.

I don’t think the Zemura chance was a sitter necessarily, but one in eleven seems absurdly high. He was slightly at an angle but he did only have the keeper to beat and had he gone across goal he certainly had a chance. One in six or seven seems more reasonable. The other point to make is that he was only at a slight angle because his touch took him wide, had he had a better first touch to shoot from a more central position would his XG be higher? In which case shouldn’t the XG be based on the position he found himself in in the first place? Out of interest, if a player runs through on goal with just the keeper to beat then trips over the ball then how does this effect XG? I’m assuming it won’t be recorded as anything due to the fact it didn’t result in a shot. Likewise a pull back that narrowly evades an attacker won’t result in anything for the same reason. It’s why I think XG needs to be taken with a bit of a pinch of salt.

 

[Neil Dawson]

I don’t think the Zemura chance was a sitter necessarily, but one in eleven seems absurdly high. He was slightly at an angle but he did only have the keeper to beat and had he gone across goal he certainly had a chance. One in six or seven seems more reasonable. The other point to make is that he was only at a slight angle because his touch took him wide, had he had a better first touch to shoot from a more central position would his XG be higher? In which case shouldn’t the XG be based on the position he found himself in in the first place? Out of interest, if a player runs through on goal with just the keeper to beat then trips over the ball then how does this effect XG? I’m assuming it won’t be recorded as anything due to the fact it didn’t result in a shot. Likewise a pull back that narrowly evades an attacker won’t result in anything for the same reason. It’s why I think XG needs to be taken with a bit of a pinch of salt.

Xg is one metric and it’s of interest I guess and I think most people look at it as such.

The bit it doesn’t and can’t take into account is how likely the individual player is to score, it’s percentage is worked out as an average of all players which is where it falls down as a result predictor for me.

Create only three clear chances a game but they fall to Harry Kane or Mo Salah and you are going to be in with a chance of a title. Create ten clear chances a game for Benik Afobe or Chukki and you are getting relegated…

 

[Topfarrier]

It is really effective, it's not failed once so far unless you could Blackpool and that wasn't the last 10/20 minutes. My question is.... What if your worst fears come true and after four or five times of successfully trying to hold onto a narrow lead we are eventually punished? So what?

Tbh I didn't have any of those fears until this season.....how many late goals did we concede to drop points in the whole of last season?.....not many....in fact I'm struggling to remember any.
I'm sure that there must have been a few but it was hardly a problem that needed fixing was it?

 

[Waz afcb]

Xg is one metric and it’s of interest I guess and I think most people look at it as such.

The bit it doesn’t and can’t take into account is how likely the individual player is to score, it’s percentage is worked out as an average of all players which is where it falls down as a result predictor for me.

Create only three clear chances a game but they fall to Harry Kane or Mo Salah and you are going to be in with a chance of a title. Create ten clear chances a game for Benik Afobe or Chukki and you are getting relegated…

True. I remember Benik running clean through against Man Unt and tripping over his own feet. Harry Kane or Salah would have buried it, for Benik it didn’t even register in the final count lol

 

[JIMNNINA]

Good result, patchy performance in difficult weather against a street wise team.

Smith MoM

First 1/4 of the marathon done and afcb setting the pace. Well done to zemura and anthony for stepping up to first team standard.

 

[Runnerrunnerru]

Kelly had a poor game given his recent high performances but that pass from the back through to Dom to win the penalty was great and something he does a fair bit. Cahill and Kelly together look to be a great fit. Cahill signing looks to be a bit of a master stroke and makes perfect sense given how young our defence is. An old head who still looks a top player at this level.

 

[Matt Stevenson]

I don’t think the Zemura chance was a sitter necessarily, but one in eleven seems absurdly high. He was slightly at an angle but he did only have the keeper to beat and had he gone across goal he certainly had a chance. One in six or seven seems more reasonable. The other point to make is that he was only at a slight angle because his touch took him wide, had he had a better first touch to shoot from a more central position would his XG be higher? In which case shouldn’t the XG be based on the position he found himself in in the first place? Out of interest, if a player runs through on goal with just the keeper to beat then trips over the ball then how does this effect XG? I’m assuming it won’t be recorded as anything due to the fact it didn’t result in a shot. Likewise a pull back that narrowly evades an attacker won’t result in anything for the same reason. It’s why I think XG needs to be taken with a bit of a pinch of salt.

There’s only 5-7% difference between 1 in 11 and 1 in 6 or 7, which is well within the margin of error. I take the xGs with a lot of salt, and close scores shouldn’t be taken as any conclusive evidence. But it does help you pick up outliers. I have not seen anything, but at an xG of Cardiff 1.98 and Reading 0.09 then Cardiff probably consider themselves unlucky to lose.

re your questions. Yes, the xG would have been reduced due to a bad first touch, if there isn’t a shot for whatever reason then the xG is recorded as zero. There are more sophisticated systems, that try and evaluate threat, but I’d hate to see the debate we’d get into on those ones.