Non - Pandemic

DJ said:
The last sentence wasn’t aimed at politicians though...

Hospitalisations are flat because new admissions are matching those leaving hospital one way or another.

Hospitalisations and deaths lag 2/3 weeks behind cases.

3 weeks ago daily cases were around 1,500-1,800 a day.

The experts then look at that, can look at the age groups and vaccinations of those testing positive and model what kind of numbers they’d be looking at for hospitalisations and deaths in comparison to now when it’s likely to be about 6,000 cases a day.

That’s why it matters, plus some of us would like our children to stay in school and that’s only going to happen without disruption if community levels of infection stay low. So if some common sense compromises allows that to happen then I’d be bemused why anyone would be against that.
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That last sentence may not have been aimed at politicians but they are among the worst for cherry picking - alongside the MSM every day.

I respect your views DJ of course but I don't agree with much of what you say. I think we need to be far braver and take advantage of the vaccine success by opening back to normal as promised on the 21st. It should already have been so but that is the very latest it should happen. Far more damage is being done every day by the restrictions than by the virus, by a long long way.
 
davygravy said:
That last sentence may not have been aimed at politicians but they are among the worst for cherry picking - alongside the MSM every day.

I respect your views DJ of course but I don't agree with much of what you say. I think we need to be far braver and take advantage of the vaccine success by opening back to normal as promised on the 21st. It should already have been so but that is the very latest it should happen. Far more damage is being done every day by the restrictions than by the virus, by a long long way.
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Currently yes, but without being Nostradamus however I’m not in a position to say whether that status will change.

But yes, restrictions are damaging and no one wants them to stay forever, but some are more damaging than others and if redharry being sat at a pub table and not able to order his pints at the bar means that my kid can stay in school? Go get a chair redharry ;)
 
While surge testing is being carried out in 'hot spots' there are going to be more positive results, that's the whole purpose of the testing. NHS in these areas are saying cases are less seriously ill than earlier in the pandemic. While so many other areas are not showing such significant increases there should be the relaxation on 21st June IMO. Get the younger people jabbed (even kids apparently) and the cases will hopefully start to decrease again.
 
I think the emphasis is wrong in this 21st June discussion. It seems to be taken for gtranted that the government has the right and the power to lock us all up on a whim, and it is only if the government decides that we can be trusted that we will be allowed out unrestricted.

It shouldn't be thus. The assumption should be that everything is normal on June 21st, and if the government thinks this is unsafe they need to produce evidence of why it is unsafe. Saying that things are OK at present but we don't know what's next, is not enough. They need convincing evidence, with modelling if appropriate but only from people whose models have been consistently right, to prove their case.
 
redharry said:
Not wishing to be pedantic DJ but 3 weeks ago the UK running average was roughly 2300 cases per day. But yes there is normally a lag of 2-3 weeks. I say normally because with the previous waves we didn't have the benefit of 50+% of the population being vaccinated
So far hospitalisations have shown virtually no change, neither have the figures on ventilation - lets hope it stays that way.
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Surely an average lag of 2-3 weeks? Coronavirus isn't so very consistent that it's always 2-3 weeks from the test. Sometimes 1 week, sometimes 4 weeks. Sometimes same day because the reason they are tested is because they arrived at hospital with something else. If cases were rising two weeks ago, the equivalent admissions rising should surely be noticeable by now?

Incidentally, I did a correlation on Bolton cases and hospitalisations. The best correlation was with a 9 day delay, 85% correlation, but anywhere between 7 and 14 days was pretty similar with 83-85%. Make it 3 weeks, and the correlation was down at 70% and the data swinging quite wildly. It was no more correlated at 3 weeks than it was at same day, which was also 70%; and obviously the same day basis would be nonsense.
 
dsr-burnley said:
Surely an average lag of 2-3 weeks? Coronavirus isn't so very consistent that it's always 2-3 weeks from the test. Sometimes 1 week, sometimes 4 weeks. Sometimes same day because the reason they are tested is because they arrived at hospital with something else. If cases were rising two weeks ago, the equivalent admissions rising should surely be noticeable by now?

Incidentally, I did a correlation on Bolton cases and hospitalisations. The best correlation was with a 9 day delay, 85% correlation, but anywhere between 7 and 14 days was pretty similar with 83-85%. Make it 3 weeks, and the correlation was down at 70% and the data swinging quite wildly. It was no more correlated at 3 weeks than it was at same day, which was also 70%; and obviously the same day basis would be nonsense.
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They're going to make a decision on the 14th, so hopefully the evidence will show that restrictions can be ended or eased further.
 
DJ said:
Currently yes, but without being Nostradamus however I’m not in a position to say whether that status will change.

But yes, restrictions are damaging and no one wants them to stay forever, but some are more damaging than others and if redharry being sat at a pub table and not able to order his pints at the bar means that my kid can stay in school? Go get a chair redharry ;)
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The more you look into the whole thing, the more the conspiracy theorists look like they have a point. Such hysteria remaining about something that was always a tiny risk to the vast majority. I think more and more people are becoming aware thankfully.
 
dsr-burnley said:
It shouldn't be thus. The assumption should be that everything is normal on June 21st, and if the government thinks this is unsafe they need to produce evidence of why it is unsafe.
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Totally agree and so far, no justification for delaying restrictions being fully lifted is available in the public domain. Sadly far too many only get their information from the BBC and Sky News.......and we know Ofcom has told them to NOT offer a balance and only share Govt headlines. Shameful really.
 
davygravy said:
That isn't what I said.
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You said 'There isn't any irrefutable evidence that lockdowns made any real difference last Autumn. Pretty much the whole country could / should have remained at tier one and much less damage would have been caused to the country and its people. '
 
If there are certain areas of the country much worse than other then maybe they need to have a tier system ?

But guess that isn’t going to be popular .
 
davygravy said:
The more you look into the whole thing, the more the conspiracy theorists look like they have a point. Such hysteria remaining about something that was always a tiny risk to the vast majority. I think more and more people are becoming aware thankfully.
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So basically you're a conspiracy theorist?

Can you explain why anyone would wilfully cause so much damage to the economy, or why death tolls have been pretty dreadful all over the world? What benefit has anyone gained from this?
 
TCherry said:
You said 'There isn't any irrefutable evidence that lockdowns made any real difference last Autumn. Pretty much the whole country could / should have remained at tier one and much less damage would have been caused to the country and its people. '
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Exactly, yes, not what you said I said!
 
RobTrent said:
So basically you're a conspiracy theorist?

Can you explain why anyone would wilfully cause so much damage to the economy, or why death tolls have been pretty dreadful all over the world? What benefit has anyone gained from this?
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No Rob, I am not one. I have fought the urge to agree with them all along. And as to your question, that is the same question that so far stopped me agreeing with them. I always thought that whoever is in Govt won't be in Govt forever and would soon enough have to have the same rules as the rest of us. Their wider families are already under the same rules.

Having said that.....some of what has gone on has made me ponder for sure. The reactions and lockdowns to the virus have really been way out of proportion to the reality of the risk to us all. That's for sure. I did think since the first lockdown, maybe the anger from the MSM towards the Govt, later made them far too cautious.

I have seen posts on social media from Doctors and medical professionals who have been against pretty much everything that has gone on. One earlier had resigned from his job as he feels a lot of lies have been shared by the Govt, especially with vaccines. Other sceptics [ not deniers but sceptics ] even with high qualifications, have been shut down.

Ofcom basically telling the MSM to only share Govt information and no balance from alternative viewpoints. Why do that?

Govt ministers lying throughout...... promises of no vaccine passports when they were already in meetings to look at them. Hancock promising to 'cry freedom' as soon as the vulnerable were vaccinated and then moving goalposts. Masks....my pet hate....!!.....being told they were not needed by pretty much every scientist, who then changed their minds despite the science not changing whatsoever...... was it just a way of seeing how much control the public would accept???

Data not dates was another fib. If that is what they promised, we would be back to normal already.

I could go on and on with this kind of thing......

So again, no, I am not a conspiracy theorist......but some of the things I read up about......and not by mad people!....it does make me wonder what is really happening here. Will they ever 'allow' us all our freedoms back??
 
davygravy said:
The more you look into the whole thing, the more the conspiracy theorists look like they have a point. Such hysteria remaining about something that was always a tiny risk to the vast majority. I think more and more people are becoming aware thankfully.
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People who are concerned about a virus that has killed millions of people are 'hysterical' from someone who is 'mentally anguished' because he's been asked to wear a mask that has caused no physical damage to anybody.
 
One of the issues when it comes to masks was that very early on it became a political thing, when the UK was zigging and everyone else was zagging the Tories often dug their heels in.

There was a misunderstanding on how the virus was transmitted. To say the science didn’t change is just plain wrong it changed multiple times from no human to human transmission, to only transmission by people who coughed or sneezed to the realisation that it doesn’t matter really how long the virus will survive on food packaging, cardboard, surfaces etc to its an airbourne virus that can be transmitted asymptomatically and that good ventilation was more important than scrubbing everything to death or putting library books in isolation for three days...

It was from this point on that mask wearing was common sense practice, but again couldn’t push them due to the political issues surrounding the global lack of PPE.

So all of that builds a hesitancy to them, just like throw a few questions about regarding the Oxford vaccine in the EU and now it’s seen as an inferior unsafe vaccine.
 
DJ said:
One of the issues when it comes to masks was that very early on it became a political thing, when the UK was zigging and everyone else was zagging the Tories often dug their heels in.

There was a misunderstanding on how the virus was transmitted. To say the science didn’t change is just plain wrong it changed multiple times from no human to human transmission, to only transmission by people who coughed or sneezed to the realisation that it doesn’t matter really how long the virus will survive on food packaging, cardboard, surfaces etc to its an airbourne virus that can be transmitted asymptomatically and that good ventilation was more important than scrubbing everything to death or putting library books in isolation for three days...

It was from this point on that mask wearing was common sense practice, but again couldn’t push them due to the political issues surrounding the global lack of PPE.

So all of that builds a hesitancy to them, just like throw a few questions about regarding the Oxford vaccine in the EU and now it’s seen as an inferior unsafe vaccine.
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Hesitancy, questioning their effectiveness, not liking wearing them, etc are all legit points of view.

Mental anguish? Can't see it.
 
davygravy said:
Exactly, yes, not what you said I said!
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Autumn starting 22nd September and ending sometime in December. So you'd liked us to all have been in Tier 1 during all that time? Surely not?

Just looked it up, the 2nd national lockdown started on the 5th November, recognised by many people as too late as per the 1st lockdown in March 2020.

When they have a public inquiry after this has literally died down, I'm sure it will be proven that those delays will have cost 10's of thousands of lives.

Whilst I realise this is all about the economy vs peoples lives, I just wish that the Covid deniers (I'm not saying you are one by the way) could just have seen what actually went on in a Covid ward during the peaks of the pandemic.

Feel really sorry for the staff (and they wear all the PPE gear during their working day - now that is stressful! )

I agree the Govt. hasn't done very well but very few have. Certainly not well communicated. To be fair, the vaccine implementation has gone very well.
 
Masks were downplayed in the US early on. Simply because like with toilet paper there was a risk that the US mentality of taking care of myself would have made mask scarce. So while in lockdown, build up the stock and then make masks important when everyone could buy them.
 
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