davygravy
Fans' Favourite
Learnt a lot this evening - 'Lockdowns never make any difference'..
That isn't what I said.
Non - Pandemic
- Thread starter blandford_cherry
- Start date
That isn't what I said.
davygravy
Fans' Favourite
The first lockdown was only two days later than Germany, which was held up as a beacon of how we should have done things!
davygravy
Fans' Favourite
She is brave at the minute! I am not anti-vax for those that need it or want it, I have had my two jabs done over a month ago now. So that is why I have the exemption lanyard in use - partly as mask wearing affected my mental health and also that I feel confident that I am now as safe as I ever was or ever will be towards others!
davygravy
Fans' Favourite
He is just such a t*osser, isn't he. Now a proven liar along the way and he expects people to accept what he says.
davygravy
Fans' Favourite
I have seen lots of comments from actual experts in the field who hate the idea of vaccinating children. Others support it for whatever reason. But when I see actual GPs and healthcare people saying this move isn't needed, it makes me sit up and question it. There have been some quite bad side effects from vaccines in adults, it has even caused death. Most adults are strong enough to get over the side effects of course but can children do that as easily?? And if most adults are now protected [ that need to be ], who exactly will benefit from children being jabbed?
DJ
Moderator
The point I was making was highlighting that restrictions clearly do work against the spread of infections, which you previously questioned and now accept as “always going to happen”.
Cases do of course mean something, you have to look at how many cases there are, in what age groups and who has been vaccinated to see what percentage turn into hospitalisations and deaths. You can’t just overlook something because it doesn’t fit the narrative.
davygravy
Fans' Favourite
Going by that last sentence though.....it can be aimed at politicians from all sides. They mention cases but then fail to balance it with the facts about hardly anyone dying from the virus now and hospitalisations remaining very flat.
Cased don't really matter anymore when it comes to deciding restrictions either. They can be quietly monitored but I don't see any worth in publishing them daily anymore.
SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
Spot the difference. An expert that davygravy disagrees with is a 'mad expert' yet he's more than happy to listen to any expert he can find who supports his completely one-sided view. He doesn't name them of course, just take it from him that these experts are out there... and they have proof of all of davygravy conspiricies.
Ignore the UK case numbers they aren't relevant to us... Look at Peru (but ignore all of the reasons their lockdown failed). The guy a lot of ignoring.
billythekid
UTC Legend
Going back a year.
The UK’s response to covid-19 so far has neither been well prepared nor remotely adequate, argue experts in The BMJ today.
Public health experts, Gabriel Scally at the University of Bristol and Bobbie Jacobson at Johns Hopkins University, together with The BMJ’s Executive Editor, Kamran Abbasi, say the UK was “forewarned but not forearmed” and call for a clear, locally led strategy of case finding, testing, and contact tracing to minimise further harm.
They discuss some of the UK government’s decisions since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency on 30 January, and ask how did a country with an international reputation for public health get it so wrong?
These included rejecting lockdown measures, abandoning contact tracing, and downgrading the covid-19 threat level, so that a lower level of PPE was required to treat patients.
“By the time the UK formally announced a lockdown with a huge package of economic support measures, almost two months of potential preparation and prevention time were squandered,” write Scally and colleagues.
They point to an absence of public health experts on scientific advisory groups coordinating the UK’s response to covid-19, and the government’s decimation of public health during years of austerity, as factors in a flawed response.
But, for now, they say the focus “must be on a strategy to minimise harm from ill advised relaxation of physical distancing in ways that will trigger further epidemic spikes with prospects of a vaccine or treatment still distant.”
As such, they call for an end to political involvement in scientific advisory groups and recruitment of more public health experts. A clear, locally led, strategy based on case finding, testing, contact tracing and isolation is also needed “to inform and justify future decisions about how the lockdown can be safely relaxed.”
https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/uks-response-to-covid-19-too-little-too-late-too-flawed/
The UK’s response to covid-19 so far has neither been well prepared nor remotely adequate, argue experts in The BMJ today.
Public health experts, Gabriel Scally at the University of Bristol and Bobbie Jacobson at Johns Hopkins University, together with The BMJ’s Executive Editor, Kamran Abbasi, say the UK was “forewarned but not forearmed” and call for a clear, locally led strategy of case finding, testing, and contact tracing to minimise further harm.
They discuss some of the UK government’s decisions since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency on 30 January, and ask how did a country with an international reputation for public health get it so wrong?
These included rejecting lockdown measures, abandoning contact tracing, and downgrading the covid-19 threat level, so that a lower level of PPE was required to treat patients.
“By the time the UK formally announced a lockdown with a huge package of economic support measures, almost two months of potential preparation and prevention time were squandered,” write Scally and colleagues.
They point to an absence of public health experts on scientific advisory groups coordinating the UK’s response to covid-19, and the government’s decimation of public health during years of austerity, as factors in a flawed response.
But, for now, they say the focus “must be on a strategy to minimise harm from ill advised relaxation of physical distancing in ways that will trigger further epidemic spikes with prospects of a vaccine or treatment still distant.”
As such, they call for an end to political involvement in scientific advisory groups and recruitment of more public health experts. A clear, locally led, strategy based on case finding, testing, contact tracing and isolation is also needed “to inform and justify future decisions about how the lockdown can be safely relaxed.”
https://www.bmj.com/company/newsroom/uks-response-to-covid-19-too-little-too-late-too-flawed/
DJ
Moderator
The last sentence wasn’t aimed at politicians though...
Hospitalisations are flat because new admissions are matching those leaving hospital one way or another.
Hospitalisations and deaths lag 2/3 weeks behind cases.
3 weeks ago daily cases were around 1,500-1,800 a day.
The experts then look at that, can look at the age groups and vaccinations of those testing positive and model what kind of numbers they’d be looking at for hospitalisations and deaths in comparison to now when it’s likely to be about 6,000 cases a day.
That’s why it matters, plus some of us would like our children to stay in school and that’s only going to happen without disruption if community levels of infection stay low. So if some common sense compromises allows that to happen then I’d be bemused why anyone would be against that.
DJ
Moderator
It would.
Testing however is currently down. Probably due to half term.
Looks like it’s about 50,000 fewer tests per day over the past week compared to three weeks ago. So that actually indicates a higher positivity rate with more positive cases recently.
Not wishing to be pedantic DJ but 3 weeks ago the UK running average was roughly 2300 cases per day. But yes there is normally a lag of 2-3 weeks. I say normally because with the previous waves we didn't have the benefit of 50+% of the population being vaccinated
So far hospitalisations have shown virtually no change, neither have the figures on ventilation - lets hope it stays that way.
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DJ
Moderator
Not a problem, I was basing it on about 3 weeks from Friday as they haven’t updated the dashboard since Wednesday last week.
billythekid
UTC Legend
Re booster jabs.
DJ
Moderator
Either way, fewer tests but more positive cases.
