Non - Pandemic

DJ said:
Ah... so future data is the way to go. Damn Boris and his failure to invest in a time machine.
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Predicted values are useful to compare against surely.

Not many battles have been won by owing where the enemy were last week.
Not many crimes were preventedby knowing where the criminals were last week.

Probably best not to travel anywhere until you have arrived there as the journey time hasn't happened yet
 
JIMNNINA said:
Assess applies to comparing actual with predicted.
Referring only to historic data tells only how bad or good things were at a past point in time.

Managing emergencies is explained in the national risk register.
Cobra is the vehicle for decision making.

The time to prepare for the new variant is when it is identified not when it is rampant.

Time to clap or boo the 21 July as the next freedom day dependent on the world beating success of the vaccine rollout.
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Listen Jim you've been pedalling this horseshit for months. You have been asked loads of times to explain how anybody anywhere can possibly know how dangerous a new variant of a virus is in a partially vaccinated population. There's is literally no way to accurately predict this based on available data until people start to die from it. This is why you've never been able to answer the mind-numbingly simple question as to how you would go about assessing how dangerous the variant is before that data is available.

You're making a fucking idiot of yourself here tbh.
 
Nobody knows what the nasty little virus is going to throw around the corner next and caution seems sensible to me. If the lockdown were ended on the 21st and 1000's were to become ill and maybe a lot sadly die then we'd all be screaming for hanging Boris et al! (I know many want the noose for him anyway but I wouldn't want his job, damned if you do, damned if you don't!)
 
By all means give ourselves more data to see how rising cases equates to hospitalisations, or hopefully not given what the NHS have been saying (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccines-infections-deaths-nhs-b1862412.html) but fine more time means more data to know for sure.

However a month seems way over the top. If it's provisionally a month but can be brought forward then ok, but we all know that won't be the case.

It's easy to give the state powers, always harder to get them back....
 
wingsnwheels said:
Nobody knows what the nasty little virus is going to throw around the corner next and caution seems sensible to me. If the lockdown were ended on the 21st and 1000's were to become ill and maybe a lot sadly die then we'd all be screaming for hanging Boris et al! (I know many want the noose for him anyway but I wouldn't want his job, damned if you do, damned if you don't!)
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Some may say Boris could have acted sooner and maybe stopped this virus coming here.

Unfortunately it was the time of his planned India trip and possible trade deal.
 
Mark WFC said:
Maybe they shouldn’t set dates and timelines as clearly these might not be able to be met ?
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Nice thought, Mark, but if they hadn't set a roadmap they'd be getting questioned every day about "do you have a clear plan?". It's bad enough at the moment with all the build up to 21 June
 
JIMNNINA said:
Data analysis is different to managing the national emergency, a favoured distraction of Cummings.

Historic data may be referred to when making decisions but it doesn't make decisions.

The too difficult to deliver belongs squarely with the pm and cobra. The Boris apologists use it regularly when he fails to deliver.
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So you dont have an answer. Entirely expected.
 
If I remember correctly the road map was that lockdown would not be ended before 21st June but that date could be extended if the target figures were not met. With the rising number of cases mainly due to the Delta variant the figures obviously haven't been met. Personally it makes little difference to me but I realise that some are affected badly by the extension and I do feel for them.
 
wingsnwheels said:
If I remember correctly the road map was that lockdown would not be ended before 21st June but that date could be extended if the target figures were not met. With the rising number of cases mainly due to the Delta variant the figures obviously haven't been met. Personally it makes little difference to me but I realise that some are affected badly by the extension and I do feel for them.
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The problem is that people will see the date regardless and that will be the focus. It wouldn't be without its problems (planning for businesses etc.) but if they'd have left the dates out and just explained the measures for us to open up fully, they'd have more leeway. That said, people would be asking for dates to plan! I can't stand the bloke, but Boris is genuinely in a no win situation with this.
 
I haven’t read anything over the weekend on what the media have been briefed/leaked etc, but surely there is some wiggle room for out door events to open further? Park runs, sporting events, weddings, parties etc?
 
JIMNNINA said:
Assess applies to comparing actual with predicted.
Referring only to historic data tells only how bad or good things were at a past point in time.
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Well that's not true is it?

Referring to historical data can show you the way that things are likely to act in the future. This is especially useful at a macro level like a pandemic.

Using recent historical data can give you trendlines that show you the likely direction of travel if nothing changes in the variables.
 
JIMNNINA said:
Predicted values are useful to compare against surely.

Not many battles have been won by owing where the enemy were last week.
Not many crimes were preventedby knowing where the criminals were last week.

Probably best not to travel anywhere until you have arrived there as the journey time hasn't happened yet
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Again, totally not true.

Criminals are creatures of habit, if you know their normal paths, the sort of target they have gone for in the past and the places that they have been apprehended then you can make a good prediction of where they will be in the future and what they will do.

This is criminology 101.
 
DJ said:
I haven’t read anything over the weekend on what the media have been briefed/leaked etc, but surely there is some wiggle room for out door events to open further? Park runs, sporting events, weddings, parties etc?
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I reckon there will be a few trade offs like you describe, but with indoor restrictions kept in place (apart from weddings). Personally I would stick to the plan but I don't think that will be the case. It will be sold as "giving us time to vaccinate £10 million more".
 
Notmarcjackson said:
Again, totally not true.

Criminals are creatures of habit, if you know their normal paths, the sort of target they have gone for in the past and the places that they have been apprehended then you can make a good prediction of where they will be in the future and what they will do.

This is criminology 101.
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And if I were to be in the business of fighting battles I most defintely would want to know where the enemy were last week and the week before and the week before that.
 
DJ said:
I haven’t read anything over the weekend on what the media have been briefed/leaked etc, but surely there is some wiggle room for out door events to open further? Park runs, sporting events, weddings, parties etc?
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Exactly. Far too much caution with outdoor events has been the theme all the way through the pandemic. They are simply not following the science with this 1/1000 chance of contracting it outside ratio.
 
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