Thoughts v Fulham

Got to be happy with 1-1 away to your main rivals. However, can't help feeling disappointed that yet another late goal has cost us points. Credit to Fulham, they are a good side and seem to have a lot of pace through their team, far more than us. They certainly put us under pressure for much of the second half and it was no surprise when they equalised.

I appreciate we were up against a good team, but I share the same concerns with some of the other posts about our defensive tactics, not just in this game but other recent examples. That's Derby, Millwall, Coventry and Fulham where we have given away winning positions in the second half. Is it a physical thing, such that we simply run out of steam, or a tactical issue? I was shouting at the screen just before Fulham equalised as we had 9 players in a line at the edge of our box but no-one was pushing out to close down the fulham players. I am convinced that AFCB and Fulham will be top two at the end, however the trend of recent points dropped is a worry and allows the chasing pack to close in when we could and should be out of sight.
 
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Solanke goal was not only fantastic but hilarious too. Silva looked like he was being sacked in the morning until they equalised then he was so relieved it was almost as funny. Anyway, great game. S Cook MOM closely followed by Travers, which probably explains why Anthony and Christie were largely anonymous. Billing had one of those games but that pass was just about enough although I was surprised Marcondes went off rather than him.
 
Johnny Comelately said:
Solanke goal was not only fantastic but hilarious too. Silva looked like he was being sacked in the morning until they equalised then he was so relieved it was almost as funny. Anyway, great game. S Cook MOM closely followed by Travers, which probably explains why Anthony and Christie were largely anonymous. Billing had one of those games but that pass was just about enough although I was surprised Marcondes went off rather than him.
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One of their coaching team certainly turned to the away fans and celebrated wildly.
 
Hi all,

Here is the xG timeline, no surprise that we were noticeably lower, although when putting it together I was surprised to see Fulham had more in the first half (2.08) than in the second (1.48) although it felt like that were laying siege to our goal. Ours was equal but take away Dom's goal - what a thing of beauty - and we had 0.08 from the second half. The difference was +0.90 to Fulham in the first half, and +1.04 to Fulham in the second half, these two numbers are closer than it felt watching at the time.

Only looking at shots rated above 1 in 3, Fulham had four, one from Odoi in the 12th minute (I can't remember this, was it the miscue?, rated 3 in 5), Cookie's block from Mitrovic (2 in 3 - the follow up was 1 in 5), Travers' save from Kebano (heading towards his bottom right corner (2 in 5), then Kebano firing into the side netting (55%) after Travers had made a great save from Mitrovic. Their goal was about 1 in 10, but I'd find it hard to begrudge Fulham a point, I think their fans would have felt a point was harsh.

We had two, both to Solanke and both at 36%. The first being a shot from just outside the left edge of the six-yard box that went wide, the second being the goal. His header was only rated as 1 in 14, showing that these are missed the majority of the time, even though it looked a good chance at first sight.

We'd all have taken the point I suspect, so now on to Blackburn. UTCIAD

Fulham.JPG
 
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Matt Stevenson said:
Hi all,

Here is the xG timeline, no surprise that we were noticeably lower, although when putting it together I was surprised to see Fulham had more in the first half (2.08) than in the second (1.48) although it felt like that were laying siege to our goal. Ours was equal but take away Dom's goal - what a thing of beauty - and we had 0.08 from the second half. The difference was +0.90 to Fulham in the first half, and +1.04 to Fulham in the second half, these two numbers are closer than it felt watching at the time.

Only looking at shots rated above 1 in 3, Fulham had four, one from Odoi in the 12th minute (I can't remember this, was it the miscue?, rated 3 in 5), Cookie's block from Mitrovic (2 in 3 - the follow up was 1 in 5), Travers' save from Kebano (heading towards his bottom right corner (2 in 5), then Kebano firing into the side netting (55%) after Travers had made a great save from Mitrovic. Their goal was about 1 in 10, but I'd find it hard to begrudge Fulham a point, I think their fans would have felt a point was harsh.

We had two, both to Solanke and both at 36%. The first being a shot from just outside the left edge of the six-yard box that went wide, the second being the goal. His header was only rated as 1 in 14, showing that these are missed the majority of the time, even though it looked a good chance at first sight.

We'd all have taken the point I suspect, so now on to Blackburn. UTCIAD

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Pretty much sums it up. We got outplayed by a better side and were lucky to hang on for a point. If Fulham don’t win the league by a comfortable margin i will be very shocked.
 
As a defender (many years ago) I get annoyed when people look at just the (superior) attacking statistics for the opposition and conclude that we were 'outplayed'. Defending/blocking/tackling/headed clearances/interceptions/goalie saves etc are all part of 'playing' football, and are the aim/jobs of 50% of the team.
You could flip things around and look at the defensive statistics for the Fulham match and conclude that we totally 'outplayed' Fulham in that respect.
 
richnrg said:
As a defender (many years ago) I get annoyed when people look at just the (superior) attacking statistics for the opposition and conclude that we were 'outplayed'. Defending/blocking/tackling/headed clearances/interceptions/goalie saves etc are all part of 'playing' football, and are the aim/jobs of 50% of the team.
You could flip things around and look at the defensive statistics for the Fulham match and conclude that we totally 'outplayed' Fulham in that respect.
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I think these are already taking into account in xG. For instance, the shot that Stacey blocked wasn't rated that highly due to the reason that Stacey was where he was. If Stacey hadn't have tracked the run (excellent play from Jack) then the xG for that chance would be much higher, because he doesn't have to tried and avoid the block, is not far out with only Travers to beat. Any clearance / interception that stops a chance being created would also reduce the xG for the phase to zero.

Although xG (and other stats) is only a guide, brilliant finishing, brilliant keeping plus luck will all mean the result can go either way, which is why we love football.
 
richnrg said:
So if our xG was 1.0, and we score 1, but Fulham's xG was 3.5, but they only scored 1, then surely this means that we are 3.5 times better than them? ;)
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:), possibly. It also shows that Travers (plus Cook!) were in good form, Solanke was clinical in scoring the goal, and their finishing wasn't great.
 
Sandman2 said:
I was shouting at the screen just before Fulham equalised as we had 9 players in a line at the edge of our box but no-one was pushing out to close down the fulham players. .
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You weren't the only one. My wife had been well informed that it was 3 attackers to one defender out on the wing, and they were able to take time to put good crosses in.
 
Waz afcb said:
Pretty much sums it up. We got outplayed by a better side and were lucky to hang on for a point. If Fulham don’t win the league by a comfortable margin i will be very shocked.
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Really never heard this opinion before, surprised we didn't lose by 3 or 4
Teams only managing a draw at home against depleted teams rarely go up apparently.
 
I would say, I saw a full strength Fulham side score a late equaliser and take a deserved point, at home, against a scratch A.F.C.B. team. The team spirit and character, matched with the talent in our squad, leads me to believe, we'll finish at least 4 points clear of Fulham.
 
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